# Inflation rate in Pakistan for September seen at 10.25% to 10.75%, down from 11.1%

Source: Searchable (https://searchable.pk/news/economy/inflation-rate-in-pakistan-for-september-seen-at-1025percent-to-1075percent-down)
Type: News article
Author: Searchable Editorial
Published: 27 Sept 2026
Updated: 27 Sept 2026
Retrieved: 30 Sept 2026

> Topline Securities expects September CPI to ease slightly after August's jump. What that means for your grocery bill, your savings and the 11.5% policy rate before PBS reports on 1 October.

The **inflation rate in Pakistan** for September 2026 is expected at **10.25% to 10.75%** year on year, a little below August's **11.1%**, according to a projection by brokerage **Topline Securities** reported by Dawn on 27 September. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) normally publishes the official September CPI figure on the first working day of October.

## The numbers

- **August 2026 CPI:** 11.1% year on year, up from 9.2% in July (PBS). Track every month on our [CPI inflation page](/data/cpi-yoy).
- **September forecast:** 10.25% to 10.75% (Topline Securities).
- **SBP policy rate:** 11.5% ([policy rate history](/data/sbp-policy-rate)).
- **Real interest rate:** at those levels the policy rate sits only about **0.75 to 1.25 percentage points** above inflation, against a historical average of 2 to 3 points, Dawn noted.
- **Foreign exchange reserves:** above $21.4 billion.

## Why prices are still rising fast

Oil is the main driver. Pakistan imports about 70% of its oil and gas, and bankers told Dawn they expect crude between **$90 and $100 a barrel** through October while the Gulf conflict and the Strait of Hormuz standoff continue. Local fuel prices have followed: PSO's ex-depot petrol price is **Rs 391.30 a litre** today ([live petrol price](/data/petrol-price)) and diesel is **Rs 408.53** ([diesel price](/data/diesel-price)). Electricity, housing, food and construction costs have also risen. The weekly SPI for the week to 25 September showed short-term inflation at 11.92%, with electricity up 18.8% in one week.

Money market analyst S.S. Iqbal told Dawn that an exact September figure is hard to call because fuel prices have been moving both abroad and at home.

## What it means for you

At 10.75%, a monthly grocery and bills basket that cost **Rs 50,000** in September 2025 now costs about **Rs 55,375**. At 10.25% it is about **Rs 55,125**. If your salary has not risen by at least that much in the past year, your real pay has fallen: check how much of a raise you need with our [salary increment calculator](/tools/finance/salary-increment-calculator).

## Savings and loans

With the real rate this thin, savings products paying less than inflation lose value. Compare current [National Savings profit rates](/guides/banking/national-savings-profit-rates) and work out your return with the [National Savings calculator](/tools/finance/national-savings-calculator). For borrowers, a slowing CPI reading lowers the pressure on the State Bank to raise rates at its next meeting, but a new jump in oil would reverse that.

## What to watch

- **1 October:** PBS September CPI release. We will update the [CPI page](/data/cpi-yoy) the same day.
- **Fuel review:** any change in petrol and diesel prices feeds straight into October's number.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the inflation rate in Pakistan right now?**

The latest official figure is 11.1% year on year for August 2026 (PBS). Topline Securities expects September at 10.25% to 10.75%; PBS publishes the official number in early October.

**When is September 2026 CPI released?**

PBS normally releases monthly CPI on the first working day of the next month, so around 1 October 2026.

## Sources

- Inflation seen slowing to 10.75pc in September (Dawn): https://www.dawn.com/news/2032971/inflation-seen-slowing-to-1075pc-in-september
- Price statistics (CPI) (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics): https://www.pbs.gov.pk/cpi

How to cite: "Inflation rate in Pakistan for September seen at 10.25% to 10.75%, down from 11.1%", Searchable, 27 Sept 2026, https://searchable.pk/news/economy/inflation-rate-in-pakistan-for-september-seen-at-1025percent-to-1075percent-down