# October inflation forecast at 9.5% to 10.5%: finance ministry expects prices to stay near September's 10.3%

Source: Searchable (https://searchable.pk/news/economy/october-inflation-forecast-at-95percent-to-105percent-finance-ministry-expects)
Type: News article
Author: Searchable Editorial
Published: 29 Oct 2026
Updated: 29 Oct 2026
Retrieved: 30 Oct 2026

> The finance ministry's monthly outlook sees October CPI inflation between 9.5% and 10.5%, with energy and food still pushing prices up. What that means for your budget, your savings and the 12% policy rate.

**Pakistan's inflation rate for October 2026 is expected to be between 9.5% and 10.5%**, the finance ministry said in its *Monthly Economic Update and Outlook* for October, released on Thursday 29 October, [Business Recorder reported](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446528/pakistan-inflation-reading-projected-in-range-of-95-105-for-october-2026). Consumer price (CPI) inflation was **10.3% in September**, against 5.8% a year earlier, so the forecast points to prices rising at roughly the same pace, possibly a little slower.

The ministry blamed **high energy and food prices**, in line with global trends, and said the path after October will depend on international energy prices, food supplies and base effects (how high prices were in the same month last year).

## The numbers that matter

| Measure | Latest | Source |
|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation, September 2026 | 10.3% | Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, via the ministry |
| CPI forecast, October 2026 | 9.5% to 10.5% | Finance ministry outlook, 29 Oct |
| SPI (weekly, week to 22 Oct) | 11.85% | PBS, [our report](/news/economy/spi-inflation-rises-to-1185percent-lpg-up-22percent-in-a-week-chicken-12percent) |
| SBP policy rate | 12% | [policy rate page](/data/sbp-policy-rate) |
| Petrol, PSO ex-depot Karachi, 29 Oct | Rs 377.91 a litre | [petrol price page](/data/petrol-price) |

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics publishes the official October figure in the first days of November. We will update our [CPI inflation page](/data/cpi-yoy) the day it comes out.

## What the ministry expects for the rest of FY27

The outlook is upbeat on growth. It expects recovery this fiscal year from **better crop prospects**, selected manufacturing, construction and rising external earnings, with remittances and services exports adding dollars and household income. On the external side it pointed to a **successful Eurobond issue, higher foreign direct investment** and stronger reserves in July to September, and described the rupee as stable. The SBP held $21.52 billion in the week to 23 October, see our [foreign exchange reserves page](/news/economy/pakistan-foreign-exchange-reserves).

## What it means for you

- **Your money loses about a tenth of its value a year** at this pace. Rs 100,000 kept in cash buys what roughly Rs 90,000 to Rs 91,000 bought a year earlier.
- **Savings:** with the policy rate at 12% and inflation near 10%, the real return on bank deposits and National Savings schemes is thin, about 1.5 to 2.5 points before tax. Compare schemes with our [National Savings calculator](/tools/finance/national-savings-calculator).
- **Salaries:** a raise under 10% this year is a cut in real terms. Our [salary increment calculator](/tools/finance/salary-increment-calculator) shows the new figure for any raise.
- **Interest rates:** the SBP sets rates partly on the inflation outlook. A reading inside the ministry's range keeps a rate cut unlikely in the near term; a figure above it would add pressure the other way.

## Frequently asked questions

**What is the inflation rate in Pakistan in October 2026?**

The finance ministry expects October 2026 CPI inflation between 9.5% and 10.5%. The official figure from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics comes out in early November. September inflation was 10.3%.

## Sources

- Pakistan inflation reading projected in range of 9.5-10.5% for October 2026 (29 Oct 2026) (Business Recorder): https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446528/pakistan-inflation-reading-projected-in-range-of-95-105-for-october-2026

How to cite: "October inflation forecast at 9.5% to 10.5%: finance ministry expects prices to stay near September's 10.3%", Searchable, 29 Oct 2026, https://searchable.pk/news/economy/october-inflation-forecast-at-95percent-to-105percent-finance-ministry-expects