# Bank of Korea warns chip exports could fall $50bn to $100bn if Big Tech cuts AI spending

Source: Searchable (https://searchable.pk/news/markets/bank-of-korea-warns-chip-exports-could-fall-dollar50bn-to-dollar100bn-if-big)
Type: News article
Author: Searchable Editorial
Published: 27 Oct 2026
Updated: 27 Oct 2026
Retrieved: 27 Oct 2026

> Semiconductors are half of South Korea's exports. In the central bank's bad case, growth loses 0.4 points next year as US tech firms pull back on data centres.

South Korea's semiconductor exports could come in **$50 billion to $100 billion below forecast** next year if US technology companies scale back spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, the **Bank of Korea** has warned, [Reuters reported](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446092/bank-of-korea-warns-countrys-chip-exports-could-fall-by-up-to-100-billion-if-ai-spending-slows) via Business Recorder on Tuesday.

The figures come from the central bank's written answer to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol.

## The pessimistic scenario

| Measure | Effect in 2027 |
|---|---|
| Chip exports vs earlier forecast | down $50bn to $100bn |
| GDP growth | down about 0.4 percentage points |
| Current account surplus | well below the BOK's initial $430bn projection |
| Korean chip unit prices (assumption) | down 10% |

Semiconductors make up roughly half of South Korea's exports, so the AI boom has become the single biggest swing factor for the economy.

## The spending it depends on

The BOK cited combined capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, projected to rise from $40bn last year to about $80bn this year and $110bn next year. It said there is considerable uncertainty over how AI demand and the memory chip cycle will develop.

The warning comes as investors weigh the AI trade from both sides: Asian shares rose on Tuesday after [Anthropic filed for a Nasdaq listing](/news/ai/anthropic-files-for-nasdaq-ipo-under-ticker-ant-listing-could-come-as-early-as), while [Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 staff](/news/business/microsoft-offers-buyouts-to-60000-staff-in-the-us-uk-canada-and-india) in an efficiency push.

## Why a Pakistani reader should care

Korea's memory chips go into the phones, laptops and servers sold in Pakistan. A slump in AI demand would ease chip prices, while a continued boom keeps memory costly, which shows up in what a new phone or laptop costs here. Compare current prices on our [mobile price list](/prices/mobiles) and [laptop price list](/prices/laptops), and work out the duty on an imported handset with the [PTA tax calculator](/tools/telecom/pta-mobile-tax-calculator).

## Sources

- Bank of Korea warns country's chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows (Reuters) (Business Recorder): https://www.brecorder.com/news/40446092/bank-of-korea-warns-countrys-chip-exports-could-fall-by-up-to-100-billion-if-ai-spending-slows

How to cite: "Bank of Korea warns chip exports could fall $50bn to $100bn if Big Tech cuts AI spending", Searchable, 27 Oct 2026, https://searchable.pk/news/markets/bank-of-korea-warns-chip-exports-could-fall-dollar50bn-to-dollar100bn-if-big