Large scale manufacturing grows 3.03% in July 2026 as car output jumps 66%

Pakistan's large-scale manufacturing (LSM) output grew 3.03% in July 2026 compared with July 2025, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics said on 16 September. The quantum index (QIM, base 2015-16) stood at 119.13. Output also rose 9.51% from June 2026. July is the first month of FY2026-27, so this is the first read on factory activity for the new fiscal year.

Winners: cars, bikes and garments

The rise was driven by vehicles and exports-linked clothing, according to PBS Table 1:

• Automobiles: up 57.0%. Car production reached 16,363 units against 9,881 a year earlier (+65.6%). Jeeps rose to 7,070 from 5,026 (+40.7%) and trucks to 1,203 from 619 (+94.3%). Light commercial vehicles grew 12.5%, while buses slipped to 75 from 78.
• Motorcycles: 210,727 units, up 40.7% from 149,806.
• Garments (wearing apparel): up 22.0%, to 8.74 million dozen from 7.16 million.
• Cigarettes: up 35.8%, to 4,065 million sticks from 2,993 million.
• Cement: 3.53 million tonnes, up 6.2%.
• Electrical goods: up 7.9%. Refrigerators rose 12.5% to 70,826 units and air conditioners 15.1% to 17,042.
• Petroleum products: up 1.3%. Petrol (motor spirit) output rose 11.6% and furnace oil 22.0%, while high speed diesel fell 7.3%.

Losers: medicines, steel and food

• Pharmaceuticals: down 20.8%. Syrups fell 25.2%, injections 45.5% and capsules 61.9%. Tablets were flat (+0.5%).
• Iron and steel: down 11.4%, with billets and ingots at 200,000 tonnes against 295,000 (-32.2%).
• Food: down 6.4%. Cooking oil output fell 19.2% and vegetable ghee 11.8%.
• Beverages: down 8.8%.
• Textiles: down 3.1%, even though yarn grew 2.7%. Cloth was flat, and woollen blankets and jute goods fell sharply.
• Fertilisers: down 4.7%. Nitrogen fertiliser was down 3.3% and phosphate down 13.8%.
• Machinery: down 13.3%, as tractor output dropped to 1,502 from 1,762 (-14.8%).

Textiles carry the biggest weight in the index (about 18.2 points), followed by food (about 10.7). Their declines held back the headline number despite the jump in vehicles.

What it means

For car and bike buyers: car output was 65.6% higher than a year earlier, though it came from a low July 2025 base of 9,881 units. Compare monthly payments with our car loan calculator, and see why some hybrid prices are rising on 1 October.

For households: the drop in cooking oil, ghee and medicine output is worth watching. Lower local production can mean tighter supply or more imports, and that matters with CPI inflation at 11.1% in August. Track it on the CPI page.

For jobs and the economy: growth in garments and cement points to activity in export stitching units in Faisalabad, Lahore and Karachi, and in construction. The weakness in steel, tractors and fertiliser suggests construction and farm demand are still soft. The data are provisional and PBS often revises them the following month.

The month-on-month jump of 9.51% partly reflects June's lower base. Tractors fell 46% and jeeps 36% from June, while cement rose 10.9% and garments 43.8%.

The SBP policy rate is at 11.5% (see the trend). The cost of borrowing remains a key factor for manufacturers deciding whether this rebound lasts.