Pakistan plans 18 LNG cargoes for winter, Qatar first, with local gas near 1.4 bcfd

Pakistan plans to bring in 18 imported LNG cargoes between November and February to cover winter gas demand, ARY News reported on Tuesday 20 October, citing government sources. Cheaper supplies from Qatar get first preference; spot cargoes would be bought only if Qatari shipments do not start in time.

The plan has not been announced by the Petroleum Division, so the cargo count and the split between Qatari and spot supply could still change.

The winter gas gap in numbers

According to the briefing given to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, as reported by ARY:

That means local gas alone may not cover even household demand in the coldest months, according to the same briefing. Eighteen cargoes over four months works out to about four or five a month.

Why Qatar first

Contracted Qatari LNG is priced well below spot cargoes, which have become costly since attacks on Gulf energy sites pushed oil and gas prices up this year. On 17 October Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said Pakistan would avoid spot LNG unless there was an "absolute dire need" (our report). Almost all of Pakistan's LNG comes through the Strait of Hormuz (why that matters for your bill).

For the price side, OGRA's last notified RLNG prices were $15.20 per MMBtu on SNGPL and $14.22 on SSGC for September (details).

What it means at home

• Punjab and KP households: the briefing says local gas may fall short of household demand, so watch SNGPL's winter supply schedule for your area.
• Your bill: gas is billed on slabs, so heavier winter use moves you into dearer slabs. Use our gas bill calculator to see what a jump from 1 to 3 hm3 does to your bill.
• Geysers and heaters: a timer on the geyser and closing the heater in empty rooms are the cheapest ways to stay in a lower slab.

What to watch

The Petroleum Division and Pakistan LNG Limited normally publish tenders for spot cargoes. If those appear in November, it will mean the Qatari supply did not arrive in time. We will update this story when the government confirms the winter plan.