Aurangzeb puts the protest bill at Rs 120bn a day, exports at risk of halving

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has put a number on the protest season: about Rs 120 billion a day off the national exchequer if the marches and sit-ins announced for the coming week go ahead. He called it "self-inflicted pain" in a message on Sunday, and aimed it at two separate campaigns, the Jamaat-e-Islami march over the petroleum development levy and the PTI protest movement set for 27 September.

Where the Rs 120bn comes from

The minister's own breakdown leans on exports. Pakistan ships roughly $90 million of goods on an average day. At Sunday's interbank rate of Rs 278.63 to the dollar, that is about Rs 25 billion of goods leaving the country every 24 hours. Aurangzeb said that in a worst case, strikes could cut daily exports by up to half, which on those two numbers is around Rs 12.5 billion of export value a day, before you count the factories, transport and retail that stop alongside it.

He also flagged internet disruption as a separate risk. IT and services exports were $811 million in the first two months of this financial year, and the government wants the full-year figure to go from $4.6 billion to $5.5 billion. Connectivity cuts during protests hit that line directly, because the work is billed by the hour and the client does not wait.

The numbers the government is defending

Aurangzeb listed what he says is at stake: foreign exchange reserves at $21.4 billion, the highest on record, a current account in surplus, a fiscal deficit down sharply, remittances rising, and GDP growth of 3.7 percent last financial year with over 4 percent expected this year. The goods export target for the year is $32.9 billion, an increase of about 6 percent. He pointed to 11 IPOs last year and five in the first two months of this one as evidence of confidence returning to the market.

Our story on the reserves record is here: SBP reserves hit a record $21.4bn.

What it means for you

If you are in Karachi, Rawalpindi or Islamabad this week, the practical cost is not the Rs 120 billion, it is the day you cannot move. The JI train march leaves Karachi today and the twin cities have closures notified from 21 to 27 September: the route and the dates are here. PTI's 27 September march is still being argued over: Naqvi wants it called off.

The grievance underneath both campaigns is the pump price. Petrol is Rs 389.14 a litre and diesel Rs 424.04 today, and the levy is a large slice of both. You can see the series at petrol price in Pakistan, and work out what a week of driving costs you at the current rate with the fuel cost calculator.

What to do

Exporters and freelancers with deadlines in the 21 to 27 September window should build in a day of slippage and tell clients now rather than on the day. If you bill in dollars, note that the rupee moved to Rs 278.63 on Saturday from Rs 277.25, so a delayed invoice is not automatically a loss. The currency converter has the live rate.