Inflation rate in Pakistan for September seen at 10.25% to 10.75%, down from 11.1%

The inflation rate in Pakistan for September 2026 is expected at 10.25% to 10.75% year on year, a little below August's 11.1%, according to a projection by brokerage Topline Securities reported by Dawn on 27 September. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) normally publishes the official September CPI figure on the first working day of October.

The numbers

• August 2026 CPI: 11.1% year on year, up from 9.2% in July (PBS). Track every month on our CPI inflation page.
• September forecast: 10.25% to 10.75% (Topline Securities).
• SBP policy rate: 11.5% (policy rate history).
• Real interest rate: at those levels the policy rate sits only about 0.75 to 1.25 percentage points above inflation, against a historical average of 2 to 3 points, Dawn noted.
• Foreign exchange reserves: above $21.4 billion.

Why prices are still rising fast

Oil is the main driver. Pakistan imports about 70% of its oil and gas, and bankers told Dawn they expect crude between $90 and $100 a barrel through October while the Gulf conflict and the Strait of Hormuz standoff continue. Local fuel prices have followed: PSO's ex-depot petrol price is Rs 391.30 a litre today (live petrol price) and diesel is Rs 408.53 (diesel price). Electricity, housing, food and construction costs have also risen. The weekly SPI for the week to 25 September showed short-term inflation at 11.92%, with electricity up 18.8% in one week.

Money market analyst S.S. Iqbal told Dawn that an exact September figure is hard to call because fuel prices have been moving both abroad and at home.

What it means for you

At 10.75%, a monthly grocery and bills basket that cost Rs 50,000 in September 2025 now costs about Rs 55,375. At 10.25% it is about Rs 55,125. If your salary has not risen by at least that much in the past year, your real pay has fallen: check how much of a raise you need with our salary increment calculator.

Savings and loans

With the real rate this thin, savings products paying less than inflation lose value. Compare current National Savings profit rates and work out your return with the National Savings calculator. For borrowers, a slowing CPI reading lowers the pressure on the State Bank to raise rates at its next meeting, but a new jump in oil would reverse that.

What to watch

• 1 October: PBS September CPI release. We will update the CPI page the same day.
• Fuel review: any change in petrol and diesel prices feeds straight into October's number.