KSE-100 closes up 830 points at 172,232 on refinery buying, rupee at 277.20

The KSE-100 closed Wednesday at 172,232.51, up 830.43 points or 0.48 percent on Tuesday's 171,402.08. That is a third straight advance and the first close above the 172,000 mark, though the index gave back most of a midday rally that had it 1,212 points higher at 12:38pm.

Turnover was the real story. Volume came in at 773.59 million shares against 641.83 million on Tuesday, and traded value rose to Rs 26.45 billion from Rs 18.47 billion. Of 496 scrips traded, 262 gained, 196 lost and 38 finished level.

Refineries led it

Pakistan Refinery Limited rose 9.79 percent, the pick of a refinery sector that ran ahead of the rest of the board. Topline Securities put the bid down to easing international oil prices and the improving tone of the US and Iran talks, the same input that has pulled Brent down for six straight sessions to about $99. Cheaper crude widens refining margins and cuts the working capital a refiner has to carry.

Index-heavy names did the rest: Fauji Fertiliser and UBL both contributed meaningfully to the point gain. The broader boards followed, with the BR100 up 136.7 points (0.73 percent) to 18,992 and the KSE-30 up 285.2 points (0.56 percent) to 51,284.

Cnergyico PK was the volume leader on 150.27 million shares, ahead of WorldCall Telecom on 91.08 million and Tasdeeq Information on 58.64 million.

The rupee barely moved

The rupee closed at 277.20 to the dollar, a gain of one paisa on the day. Other interbank rates: the pound at 369.94, the euro at 317.46, the Saudi riyal at 73.92 and the UAE dirham at 75.48. Our currency converter runs off the same series if you are paying a foreign invoice or pricing a remittance.

Keep today in proportion

The index is still about 9.8 percent below its 52-week high of 191,032.73, and it remains marginally negative for the calendar year to date even after three days of buying. A 0.48 percent close is a good day, not a turn.

The cost of money underneath it has not moved. The 1-year KIBOR was fixed at 12.35 percent, one basis point above Tuesday, and the State Bank policy rate stands at 11.5 percent. With borrowing costs that flat, the equity move is coming from sentiment and earnings expectations rather than from any rate story.

For a saver weighing the market against a contractual return, our National Savings calculator shows the monthly profit on a given deposit, and our home loan calculator prices what the same KIBOR does to a mortgage instalment.

What to watch on Thursday

Two things. Brent, because a seventh down session feeds straight back into the refinery trade and into the next OGRA fuel price review on 1 October. And the IMF's fourth review, which opened in Karachi this week with $1bn and a further $200m riding on it.

Live levels sit on our KSE-100 page and dollar rate page, both of which refresh through the day.