Oil eases near $105.6 as US says Saudi pipeline restarts in days: petrol outlook

Updated 16 September, 11pm: oil eased on Wednesday after the US said the pipeline would be back within days. Brent was trading around $105.59 a barrel, below Tuesday's intraday high of $108.43, according to Trading Economics. The rest of this story was written on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday: a restart in days, or in weeks?

• The US view. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg Television on Monday he expected the pipeline "running back soon". By Wednesday US officials were saying the outage should be resolved within days, CNBC and Trading Economics reported.
• Saudi Aramco's view. Aramco is working to restore about half the line's capacity within days and full operation in roughly six weeks, according to Trading Economics' market summary. Independent analysts expect repairs to take longer.
• Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been shipping more crude through the Strait of Hormuz with US military help.
• Scale: the East-West line can carry about 7 million barrels a day, according to a Briefs summary of the Energy Secretary's remarks.

For Pakistan the gap between "days" and "six weeks" matters. A quick restart would take some pressure off the daily pump price; a six-week repair at half capacity would keep crude above $100. The rupee was steady at Rs 277.27 in the interbank market on Wednesday, so for now the dollar oil price is doing all the work.

Brent crude settled at $105.89 a barrel on Tuesday, up 0.2%, after touching $108.43 during the session. US crude (WTI) closed at $102.29, up 0.89%. The trigger is still Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, knocked offline by attacks on Friday and not yet back.

For Pakistan, which buys most of its oil abroad and now resets pump prices every day, that is not a distant market story. It showed up at the pump this morning: petrol is Rs 384.34 a litre, up Rs 4.10.

What happened overnight

• The pipeline is still shut. The East-West line carries Saudi crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, away from the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said estimates for repairs range from "very soon" to eight weeks, and warned the attacks could threaten about 2 million barrels a day of recent Yanbu exports.
• More strikes. Houthi forces fired missiles and drones at the Khamis Mushait military base on Monday, according to BNN Bloomberg's report.
• Hormuz traffic is thin. Commodity vessels crossing the Strait fell to 4 on Monday from about 10 a day earlier, based on Kpler data.
• The worst case. Capital Economics estimates that several weeks of closure could push Brent towards $130.

Borrowing costs are rising too

The oil shock is feeding inflation fears. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041%, its highest since June 2007, and Japan's 10-year yield hit 3.04%, a 30-year high, Cointelegraph reported. Higher global rates make dollar borrowing dearer for countries like Pakistan and pull money away from riskier assets, from emerging-market stocks to bitcoin.

What it means for you

A rough rule: every $1 added to a barrel adds about Rs 1.75 to the crude cost of a litre at today's rupee rate (Rs 277.72 to the dollar, 159 litres to a barrel), before refining, freight, taxes and levies. Moves of $3 to $5 a barrel, common this month, translate into the Rs 4 to Rs 6 daily changes drivers have been seeing.

What to do this week

1. Budget for higher fuel. Use the fuel cost calculator with a price Rs 10 to Rs 15 above today's to see your worst case.
2. Register for relief if your vehicle qualifies. Our 9771 explainer walks through the SMS.
3. Expect freight to follow. Diesel feeds transport costs, so traders in Karachi and Lahore markets tend to pass on increases within days.

The next signal to watch is any Saudi statement on when the East-West Pipeline restarts. Until then, the daily price notices are likely to keep pointing up. See what a full tank costs today.