SBP reserves at $21.5 billion: Governor Jameel Ahmad tells JP Morgan, Citi and others Pakistan can absorb the oil shock
At the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, the State Bank governor set out how far reserves, forward liabilities and growth have moved since the 2023 crisis, and the bank's 3.5% to 4.5% growth forecast for this year.
The State Bank of Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves stood at $21.5 billion on 9 October 2026, up from less than $3 billion in February 2023, Governor Jameel Ahmad told foreign investors in Bangkok, according to an SBP press release reported by Business Recorder on Saturday.
Ahmad met senior executives of JP Morgan, Citibank, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Bank of America, MSCI, Standard Chartered and MUFG, as well as central banks, partner lenders and rating agencies, on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. His message: geopolitical shocks, including the current oil price spike, are a challenge, but Pakistan is in a much better position to absorb them than in past periods of external stress.
The numbers he put in front of investors
| Indicator | Then | Now, per SBP |
|---|---|---|
| SBP reserves | under $3bn (Feb 2023) | $21.5bn (9 Oct 2026) |
| SBP forward liabilities | over $5.7bn | under $1bn |
| GDP growth | contraction (FY23) | 3.7% (FY26); 3.5% to 4.5% forecast for FY27 |
| Current account | almost balanced (FY26); deficit of 0 to 1% of GDP forecast for FY27 | |
| Primary fiscal balance | surplus for a third year running (FY26) |
The SBP said inflation fell from its FY23 highs to near the target range in FY26 despite an oil price shock, that external debt rose only marginally over three years, and that public debt is falling as a share of GDP. It credited reforms of exchange companies and incentives for sending remittances through banks with improving dollar liquidity in the interbank market, and said it expects to keep buying dollars.
The governor also pointed to the staff-level agreement with the IMF on the reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and to recent rating upgrades that have reopened access to international capital markets.
What it means for you
- The rupee: larger reserves give the SBP room to smooth sharp moves in the dollar rate. Track it on our dollar rate today page, which records every daily reading.
- Borrowing costs: inflation near target is what allows rate cuts. See the current SBP policy rate and KIBOR, which set what you pay on car and home loans; our car loan calculator shows the monthly instalment at today's rate.
- The risk: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Saturday, as Business Recorder reported, that attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure are worrying for Pakistan's outlook. A sustained oil spike would test the current account forecast first.
The Business Recorder report carried no direct quotes from Ahmad; the figures above are the SBP's own.
Frequently asked questions
- What are SBP's foreign exchange reserves in October 2026?
- The State Bank said its reserves were $21.5 billion as of 9 October 2026, up from under $3 billion in February 2023.
Sources
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