Alberta referendum today: separation question counted first, results from 7am Tuesday PKT

Albertans are voting today, Monday 19 October, in a referendum that asks whether the Canadian province should stay in Canada or start the legal process towards a binding vote on separation. Polls close at 8pm Alberta time, which is 7am Tuesday in Pakistan, and the separation question is the first one counted.

It is not a vote to leave Canada. The 10th of 10 questions on the ballot begins "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada?" and asks voters to choose between staying and having the provincial government begin the constitutional process for a later, binding separation referendum.

Alberta referendum: the timings in Pakistan time

Ballots are counted by hand within 48 hours, and the results website shows nothing until every polling station has closed, Global News reported. Just over 1,400 polling stations are open today, and anyone in line at 8pm may still vote.

Record early turnout

About 1.35 million Albertans, 43% of eligible voters, had already cast advance or special ballots, the Associated Press reported, carried by ABC News. That compares with about 810,000 early votes in the 2023 provincial election. Officials had forecast a record turnout of 80 to 85% of Alberta's nearly three million electors, and on the first day of advance voting alone 174,532 people voted, CTV News reported.

What the polls say

Every published poll since May shows a clear majority for staying. The most recent, Abacus Data's survey of 4 to 7 September, had 64% for remaining and 24% for starting a separation referendum; Angus Reid in August had 61% to 33%. Premier Danielle Smith, who put the question on the ballot but opposes independence, cited a poll showing 22% support for separation and said even that was too high.

Separatist leader Jeff Rath has said 30% support would count as a win for his side even without a majority.

Carney's last appeal

Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans not to treat the vote as a way to send Ottawa a message. "Vote like Canada's future depends on it because it does," he said. Alberta holds most of Canada's proven oil reserves, and the vote comes in the middle of US President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada.

First Nations leaders have objected throughout. Chief Sheldon Sunshine of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation says Alberta cannot leave without First Nations' consent under the treaties, and that his nation would stay in Canada. In May, an Alberta court struck down the original separation petition because Indigenous peoples had not been consulted.

A vote held under a shadow

The weekend fire at CFB Wainwright, which killed four soldiers and left 19 people in critical condition, hangs over polling day. Smith said the vote would go ahead, with Wainwright's polling stations open as planned. Read our CFB Wainwright fire coverage for the latest.

For Pakistanis in Alberta

Alberta's Pakistani community, mostly in Calgary and Edmonton, votes like any other Albertan if they are Canadian citizens aged 18 or over who normally live in the province. Bring one government photo ID with your current address, or two pieces of ID with your name, one showing your address. Employers must give three consecutive hours off to vote. Families sending money home can check today's rate on our currency converter.

We will update this page with the result on Tuesday morning, Pakistan time.