China's exports jump 36.3% in September, far above the 25.5% forecast; imports up 31%

China's exports rose 36.3% in September from a year earlier in US dollar terms, far ahead of the 25.5% growth economists had forecast in a Reuters poll, customs data released on Wednesday 14 October showed. Imports grew 31%, Business Recorder reported, carrying the Reuters report.

The numbers

Growth accelerated by more than 11 percentage points from August's 25%, and imports kept pace. CNBC also reported that both exports and imports beat expectations.

Why it matters in Pakistan

China is Pakistan's biggest source of imports: phones, solar panels, machinery, chemicals, yarn and the raw materials for much of local manufacturing. Strong Chinese factory output usually keeps supply plentiful, which matters most for the goods Pakistanis buy in rupees every day:

• Solar. Panel prices in Pakistan track Chinese supply. Our solar panel price page records the per-watt rate, and the solar payback calculator shows how long a system takes to pay for itself.
• Phones and laptops. Most handsets sold here are made in China or assembled from Chinese parts. Check mobile prices in Pakistan and work out the PTA tax on an imported set with the PTA mobile tax calculator.

On the other side, China buying more from abroad (imports up 31%) is welcome for Pakistani exporters who sell to Chinese buyers.

What to watch next

The next test is whether the surge holds into the final quarter, when Chinese factories ship for Western holiday demand. For Pakistani importers the practical numbers are the exchange rate and freight: a stronger dollar raises the rupee cost of every container, whatever happens to Chinese prices. Importers paying in yuan through banks should compare the dollar and yuan routes before settling invoices.

Follow the rupee against the dollar for the exchange rate that sets the landed cost of every Chinese import.