Pakistan GDP growth FY26 revised to 3.65%: economy now Rs 126.4 trillion, $450 billion

Pakistan's GDP growth for FY2025-26 has been revised down to 3.65% from the 3.70% estimated earlier, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) decided at its 118th meeting on Monday 19 October. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released the figures the same day, and Business Recorder and ProPakistani carried the detail.

The headline number barely moved, but what sits under it changed a lot. Farming did better than first thought, shops and factories did worse, and the last quarter of the year was far weaker than the first three.

The size of the economy and income per person

Income per person for FY26 now stands at Rs 531,897, or about $1,896. Spread over twelve months, that is roughly Rs 44,300 a month for every person in the country, an average that hides wide gaps between a salaried household in Lahore and a farming family in south Punjab or Sindh.

The finance minister had already told investors in September that growth was about 3.7% (our report). Monday's revision replaces that figure with the committee's final word for now.

Sector by sector

• Agriculture: 3.50% (earlier 2.89%). Important crops grew 1.59% on better wheat and maize, other crops 4.28% (tomatoes up 44%, pulses 6.3%, oilseeds 5.4%), livestock 3.71%, forestry 10.80% and fishing 1.39%.
• Industry: 3.34% (earlier 3.51%). Large-scale manufacturing was cut to 5.01% from 6.11%. Mining rose to 1.52% and construction to 6.30%. Within manufacturing, autos jumped 57.77% and transport equipment 42.36%, while pharmaceuticals fell 8.87% and iron and steel 7.84%.
• Services: 3.81% (earlier 4.09%). Wholesale and retail trade was cut hard to 2.37% from 3.71%, which PBS put down to lower manufacturing and imports. Information and communication rose 9.53%, finance and insurance 4.23%, and public administration 5.67%.

The weak fourth quarter

Quarterly growth was revised to 3.89% in July to September, 4.31% in October to December and 4.42% in January to March. The first estimate for April to June is only 2.0%, against 6.07% a year earlier. Industry shrank 4.70% in that quarter, dragged by a 33.19% fall in electricity, gas and water supply, which PBS linked to lower subsidies, a high deflator and the base effect from last year.

What it means for you

Growth of 3.65% is only slightly ahead of population growth, so income per person rose modestly in real terms. Jobs in trade and retail, where growth was weakest, employ a large share of urban workers. If you are weighing a raise against inflation, run the numbers with our salary increment calculator, and see the latest inflation reading on the CPI data page. For the dollar figures above, the USD to PKR page has today's rate.