Inflation rate in Pakistan for September 2026: 10.3%, down from 11.1%

Updated Thursday 1 October 2026, 10:45pm PKT. The inflation rate in Pakistan was 10.3% in September 2026, down from 11.1% in August, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Monthly Review on Price Indices for September. Prices rose 1.3% from August (an earlier version of this story, based on press reports, said 0.3%; the PBS release shows 1.3%). The figure landed at the bottom of the 10.25% to 10.75% range Topline Securities had forecast, and inside the Finance Division's 10% to 11% projection.

The numbers

• July to September average: 10.2%, against 4.3% in the same quarter last year, ProPakistani reported. Prices are rising more than twice as fast as a year ago.
• Real interest rate: with the policy rate at 11.5%, it now sits about 1.2 percentage points above inflation, still thin by Pakistan's usual standard of 2 to 3 points.
• Track every month on our CPI inflation page and the policy rate history.

Why it eased, and why it is still high

The slowdown is base-effect arithmetic, not cheaper prices: prices still rose 1.3% in the month, a little faster than August's 1.2%, but September 2025 had jumped 2.1%, so the year-on-year comparison softened. Rural inflation fell fastest, from 12.2% to 10.5%. Wholesale prices, which tend to reach shop shelves later, sped up to 13.3%. The pressure has not gone. Oil is the main risk the Finance Division names: Brent crude went back above $100 a barrel on 1 October after Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports, CNBC reported. Locally, PSO's ex-depot petrol price is Rs 387.40 a litre today (live petrol price) and diesel Rs 400.35 (diesel price), and electricity costs have climbed. The LPG price for October also rose by Rs 244 to Rs 3,296 for an 11.8 kg cylinder (LPG price story).

What it means for you

At 10.3%, a monthly grocery and bills basket that cost Rs 50,000 in September 2025 now costs about Rs 55,150. If your salary has not risen by at least 10.3% in the past year, your real pay has fallen: work out the raise you need with our salary increment calculator.

Savings and loans

Savings products paying less than 10.3% are losing value in real terms. Compare current National Savings profit rates and work out your return with the National Savings calculator. For borrowers, a reading below 11% eases the pressure on the State Bank to raise rates at its next meeting, but another oil spike would reverse that; KIBOR, which sets most car and home loan rates, is here.

What to watch

• Fuel: any change in petrol and diesel prices feeds straight into October's number.
• Electricity: quarterly and fuel cost adjustments on bills are the other big swing factor.

Earlier, 27 September 2026: Topline Securities projected September inflation at 10.25% to 10.75%, Dawn reported.