Petrol shortage fears: dealers say don't panic-buy, refineries running and Gulf imports arriving

Update, Saturday 24 October: petrol dealers have asked people not to panic-buy. The Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) said on Friday that supply and demand are in balance, refineries are running and crude and products are still arriving from the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and Oman, Dawn reported. Lines of cars and motorcycles at pumps are what create a shortage, its chairman Malik Khuda Baksh said.

Dealers: refineries running, imports arriving

Khuda Baksh said reports that the country could run dry in the coming days were circulating, and compared them with the brief panic of October 2001, when petrol and diesel never actually ran out. The real squeeze, he said, is in LPG, where the closure of the Iran border has put the market under stress. On price, he said only that it "remains an issue", a separate matter from supply.

Industry estimates for November, as reported by Dawn:

Diesel demand rises with the rabi sowing season. High prices and the off-peak travel season are expected to keep petrol use down next month.

Levy talks with Jamaat-i-Islami still open

Talks between the government and Jamaat-i-Islami on cutting the petroleum levy were "inconclusive" on Friday, JI deputy emir Liaqat Baloch said after meeting a team led by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal. A technical committee (State Minister for Finance Bilal Azhar Kayani, JI Islamabad emir Nasrullah Randhawa and Syed Farasat Shah) is to meet within two to three days. JI wants Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to announce further relief when he meets its chief Hafiz Naeem.

Earlier: what the Senate was told on 23 October

Will there be a petrol shortage in Pakistan in December? That was the question in the Senate on Friday, 23 October, as senators pressed the government on fuel and LPG supplies while the Gulf conflict pushes oil prices up, Dawn reported. The government's answer: there are no supply issues.

What senators asked

Sherry Rehman of the PPP, who chairs the Senate climate change committee, asked directly whether petrol would be available in December and whether the government was planning rationing. She asked for a briefing to parliament on any contingency plan, saying the concerns were "not minor" given renewed attacks on Iran and the wider conflict in West Asia.

She also warned about cooking gas. Pakistan imports about 70% of its LPG and produces about 30% at home, she said, and while the country received five LPG cargoes last year, only two are expected this year. She asked the government for a supply plan before winter.

Opposition leader Allama Raja Nasir Abbas said a war on the region's energy routes and shipping chokepoints would deepen Pakistan's energy crisis, pointing to flour shortages in Punjab and LPG shortages across the country.

What the government said

Minister of State for Finance Bilal Azhar Kayani told the house there were no supply issues. He said more than 10 million people benefit from the targeted fuel subsidy, which is applied at the pump for motorcyclists, rickshaw and loader drivers and small-car owners, and that the petroleum levy is budgeted at Rs 1,676 billion this year. He accepted that the regional conflict is pushing fuel prices up everywhere.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview last week that Pakistan has bought enough energy to last through November and is planning for winter demand. That is the only time frame the government has given in public; no one has yet said what is in hand for December.

Why the worry now

Brent crude reached about $115 a barrel on Friday, its highest since May, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and airports. Pakistan imports most of its crude and fuel through the Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab have both been disrupted this year.

What you can do

• Do not hoard: the government says there is no shortage, and panic buying is what empties pumps.
• Track the daily PSO ex-depot price on our petrol price page and diesel price page.
• Work out what a month of driving costs at today's price with the fuel cost calculator, and check your car's real consumption with the fuel average calculator.
• For LPG, compare with piped gas using the gas bill calculator.