World Bank: commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026, Brent to average $92, gold and precious metals up 40%

Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, driven by the war in the Middle East, disruption to Black Sea grain shipments and a rush into gold. The report was carried by Reuters and published by Dawn on Thursday 29 October.

The forecasts

The bank expects Brent crude to average $92 a barrel for 2026. It forecasts world oil supply to fall 5.2% this year, the steepest drop in four decades outside the 2020 recession, and demand to fall 2.5%. "Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," World Bank economist Ayhan Kose said.

In a worse case, with a record El Niño, more Black Sea disruption, a wider Middle East conflict and further damage to Russian oil infrastructure, food prices could end up 12% above the forecast. The World Bank has so far given $8.7 billion in cheap loans and other aid to 25 countries hit by the war.

What it means in Pakistan

The report does not single out Pakistan, but the country imports most of its crude, LNG and edible oil, and its farmers depend on urea and DAP, so each of these lines reaches household bills:

• Fuel: petrol is Rs 377.91 and diesel Rs 399.82 a litre from today, with prices now set daily against world prices. Brent was above $115 a barrel this week, well over the bank's yearly average, which tells you how high the second half has run. See the petrol price page and the PSO petrol price data.
• Gold: a 40% rise in precious metals is what local buyers have lived through; 24-karat gold is about Rs 4.19 lakh a tola today (gold price data).
• Food and fertiliser: higher world urea and food prices feed into flour, cooking oil and crop costs, and into the SBP's view on interest rates. Weekly SPI inflation was 11.85% last week (our story).

The bank also warned that higher commodity prices could mean higher inflation and tighter monetary policy around the world.