US Fed holds rates at 3.75% to 4% with two votes for a hike; December increase now expected

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, 28 October, a month after raising it for the first time in three years, CBS News reported. Two policymakers wanted another increase, and economists now expect one at the Fed's last meeting of the year on 8 and 9 December.

The vote

• 10 votes to hold.
• 2 votes for a 0.25-point hike: Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.

Chair Kevin Warsh called the debate "a heck of a family fight, a serious, sober discussion" and declined to say what the Fed will do in December.

Why the Fed is worried

US inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The consumer price index rose 3.7% a year in September and core inflation 2.6%, both above forecasts, with the Iran war keeping energy prices high. Warsh said inflation remains "too high" even as spending, jobs and growth look strong.

Oxford Economics' Michael Pearce said the two hawkish dissents and the statement's wording "all suggest the central bank will hike rates in December". Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs said markets are pricing about 0.75 points of further tightening over the next year.

A change to Fed meetings

Warsh also announced that from 2027 one of the Fed's eight yearly meetings will be for discussion only, with no rate vote and no statement. By 2028 he expects two discussion meetings and six rate decisions.

What it means in Pakistan

• The rupee and the dollar. Higher US rates tend to keep the dollar strong and make money flow out of emerging markets. The interbank rupee was about Rs 276.76 a dollar on Thursday; the dollar rate page tracks it daily.
• Gold. A firm dollar and high US rates usually weigh on gold. Gold in Pakistan fell to about Rs 417,910 a tola (24k) on Thursday, down from Rs 420,979 the day before; see gold rate today.
• Pakistan's own rate. The SBP policy rate stands at 12% (policy rate page). A strong dollar and high oil prices limit how far the SBP can cut.
• Remittances and freelancers. A firmer dollar raises the rupee value of money earned abroad; our freelancer tax calculator works out the tax on it.

Separately on Thursday, the European Central Bank kept its key rate on hold at 2.5%, CNBC reported, as Christine Lagarde prepares to step down as ECB President on 7 February 2027.