US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island near Hormuz on midterm eve; Brent back above $105

The United States has struck targets on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, US officials said on Monday night (early Tuesday, Pakistan time), hours before Americans vote in the midterm elections. The Qeshm strike news arrived just as markets had started pricing in a deal to end the eight-month war.

What happened on Qeshm Island

The Wall Street Journal first reported the strikes. Three US officials then confirmed them to CBS News, which described them as "limited defensive strikes". A senior US official told CBS that Qeshm Island was the target and that the strikes followed fire from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at an American aircraft. Some officials told reporters the aim was to stop Iran attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Business Recorder reported.

Iranian state media reported five explosions on Qeshm, ARY News reported, and the WSJ described it as one of several recent secret US strikes. US Central Command did not comment straight away. No casualty figures had been given by the time of writing.

Talks still on, with Pakistan in the room

The strike lands in the middle of active diplomacy:

• President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday that "Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible" and that a deal "could happen".
• Vice President JD Vance told reporters: "We've certainly made some progress. We'll see if we can make some more."
• Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Qatar and Pakistan are "playing a very active mediating role" in indirect talks.
• A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington accepted its demands, which include lifting sanctions and unfreezing assets.
• Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei warned that any aggression would meet a "powerful, immediate and comprehensive response".

Oil: the 7% fall partly reversed

Brent crude settled Monday down $8.66, or 7.63%, at $104.77 a barrel, on hopes the war was ending. After the Qeshm report it rose about 0.5% to $105.25 by 0104 GMT (6:04am PKT) on Tuesday, and US WTI rose a similar amount to $96.93, Business Recorder reported. "The report added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price," Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said.

The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a fifth of the world's crude oil and gas. Traffic through it has been sharply cut since the conflict began in late February.

What it means in Pakistan

Pakistan imports nearly all its crude and most of its fuel, so the Hormuz risk premium flows straight into what drivers here pay. The government cut petrol by Rs 3.40 and diesel by Rs 7.76 a litre from 3 November, partly by asking refineries to absorb the cost. A renewed jump in Brent would put that relief under pressure at the next fortnightly price review.

You can track PSO's ex-depot price on our petrol price page and the diesel price page, and work out your monthly fuel bill with the fuel cost calculator.

What to watch

Polls in the US close from 4am Wednesday Pakistan time. Trump has floated restarting full hostilities after the vote, while Qatari and Pakistani mediators are pushing for a settlement before that happens.