October inflation forecast at 9.5% to 10.5%: finance ministry expects prices to stay near September's 10.3%

Pakistan's inflation rate for October 2026 is expected to be between 9.5% and 10.5%, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October, released on Thursday 29 October, Business Recorder reported. Consumer price (CPI) inflation was 10.3% in September, against 5.8% a year earlier, so the forecast points to prices rising at roughly the same pace, possibly a little slower.

The ministry blamed high energy and food prices, in line with global trends, and said the path after October will depend on international energy prices, food supplies and base effects (how high prices were in the same month last year).

The numbers that matter

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics publishes the official October figure in the first days of November. We will update our CPI inflation page the day it comes out.

What the ministry expects for the rest of FY27

The outlook is upbeat on growth. It expects recovery this fiscal year from better crop prospects, selected manufacturing, construction and rising external earnings, with remittances and services exports adding dollars and household income. On the external side it pointed to a successful Eurobond issue, higher foreign direct investment and stronger reserves in July to September, and described the rupee as stable. The SBP held $21.52 billion in the week to 23 October, see our foreign exchange reserves page.

What it means for you

• Your money loses about a tenth of its value a year at this pace. Rs 100,000 kept in cash buys what roughly Rs 90,000 to Rs 91,000 bought a year earlier.
• Savings: with the policy rate at 12% and inflation near 10%, the real return on bank deposits and National Savings schemes is thin, about 1.5 to 2.5 points before tax. Compare schemes with our National Savings calculator.
• Salaries: a raise under 10% this year is a cut in real terms. Our salary increment calculator shows the new figure for any raise.
• Interest rates: the SBP sets rates partly on the inflation outlook. A reading inside the ministry's range keeps a rate cut unlikely in the near term; a figure above it would add pressure the other way.