Bank of Korea warns chip exports could fall $50bn to $100bn if Big Tech cuts AI spending

South Korea's semiconductor exports could come in $50 billion to $100 billion below forecast next year if US technology companies scale back spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, the Bank of Korea has warned, Reuters reported via Business Recorder on Tuesday.

The figures come from the central bank's written answer to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol.

The pessimistic scenario

Semiconductors make up roughly half of South Korea's exports, so the AI boom has become the single biggest swing factor for the economy.

The spending it depends on

The BOK cited combined capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, projected to rise from $40bn last year to about $80bn this year and $110bn next year. It said there is considerable uncertainty over how AI demand and the memory chip cycle will develop.

The warning comes as investors weigh the AI trade from both sides: Asian shares rose on Tuesday after Anthropic filed for a Nasdaq listing, while Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 staff in an efficiency push.

Why a Pakistani reader should care

Korea's memory chips go into the phones, laptops and servers sold in Pakistan. A slump in AI demand would ease chip prices, while a continued boom keeps memory costly, which shows up in what a new phone or laptop costs here. Compare current prices on our mobile price list and laptop price list, and work out the duty on an imported handset with the PTA tax calculator.