HBL manufacturing PMI slips to 50.8 in October as input costs hit a record high

The HBL Pakistan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 50.8 in October 2026 from 50.9 in September. A reading above 50.0 signals growth, so factories are still expanding, but only marginally, and the index is at a six-month low.

Costs are the problem

Input price inflation reached its highest level since data collection began in May 2024, according to the HBL press release. Survey respondents pointed mainly to higher raw material prices, especially fuel and fabrics. Manufacturers passed more of the burden to customers, and selling prices rose at the fastest rate since April.

The survey ties this to elevated energy prices and persistent disruption across the Middle East. For readers, it is the factory-gate side of the October consumer inflation figure of 9.6% that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics published the same day.

Orders, exports and jobs

• New orders returned to growth after contracting in September, helped by better product quality and a recovery in domestic demand.
• Export orders fell for the first time in six months and by the most in over a year, as higher prices and regional disruptions weighed on foreign buyers.
• Employment declined for the first time since May, as firms tried to contain costs.
• Business confidence softened to a three-month low.

Why it matters

A PMI that stays barely above 50 while input costs climb points to squeezed margins. Textile and fabric-heavy sectors face the double hit of costlier raw material and softer export demand. The State Bank's policy rate stands at 12% (see our policy rate page), and weaker factory momentum will be part of the debate around its next decision.

Follow the wider price picture on our inflation page, and see how the rupee is moving against the dollar on the USD to PKR page.

Source: HBL press release as published by Business Recorder on 2 November 2026; PMI compiled by S&P Global.