Pakistan inflation eases to 9.6% in October 2026 from 10.3% in September

Pakistan's headline inflation was 9.6% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 10.3% in September, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday 2 November. The reading sits inside the finance ministry's forecast range of 9.5% to 10.5% and a little above what several brokerages expected.

What the October CPI shows

Prices still rose month on month: the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.1% in October after a 1.3% rise in September. A year earlier, October 2025 inflation was 6.2%, so the annual figure is cooling from a much higher base than last year.

Urban and rural readings were close:

• Urban CPI: 9.5% year-on-year (10.1% in September), and 0.8% higher than September.
• Rural CPI: 9.8% year-on-year (10.5% in September), and 1.5% higher than September.

Rural households are feeling the monthly rise more sharply, which fits the fuel and food pressures that reports from the past two weeks have described.

The FY27 picture

Over the first four months of the 2026-27 fiscal year (July to October), CPI inflation averaged 10.05%, against 4.79% in the same period last year. That is more than double the pace of a year ago.

The finance ministry's Monthly Economic Update projected October at 9.5% to 10.5% and said the path ahead depends on international energy prices, food supplies and base effects. Topline Securities had expected 9.0% to 9.5% for October and Insight Securities 9.3%, and Topline has said average FY27 inflation could exceed 9% if oil stays at $100 to $110 a barrel.

What it means for you

With the SBP policy rate at 12% (see our policy rate page), the gap between the rate and October inflation is about 2.4 percentage points. Fuel is the other pressure: PSO's ex-depot Karachi petrol price is tracked on our petrol price page.

• Check what a raise needs to be to keep pace with 9.6% using the salary increment calculator.
• Compare savings returns against inflation with the National Savings calculator.
• Follow the monthly series on our inflation data page.

Figures are from PBS as reported by Business Recorder on 2 November 2026. Weekly SPI readings, covered separately, are a different measure and can differ from the monthly CPI.